Original research · 1,004 respondents · 2026
Most habit tools are built for Robot Days.
Moon Manifest is built for Human Weeks.
We asked 1,004 people why their habits fail. The answer wasn't laziness or lack of willpower. Two things. And both are fixable.
Energy problem rate
38%
← #1 failure cause
Streak shame rate
28%
← Quit after 1 miss
Guilt rate
34%
← App users
Consistency outcome
Erratic
The science caught up
You probably grew up hearing the "21-day rule": stick with something for three weeks and it becomes automatic. That number came from a 1960 self-help book, not research. It was never a study. There was no data. It spread because it sounded plausible and fit neatly onto motivational posters.
The actual science took longer. In 2010, Phillippa Lally at UCL ran the first real habit formation study and found the average was 66 days, not 21. But that study has its own problem: 96 participants, all university students from a single UK institution, mostly forming one simple behaviour (eating fruit with lunch). Replication has been weak, and the effect sizes vary wildly depending on the habit type and the person.
Here's what the Lally data does show: the variability is huge. Some habits automated in 18 days. Others took 254. The mean tells you almost nothing about what will happen for you specifically.
The willpower model is failing too
The dominant habit model says: decide, repeat, persist. Willpower is the fuel. If you break the chain, you lacked discipline. This model works well for people whose energy is stable, whose schedules are consistent, and whose biology doesn't cycle. That describes a smaller slice of the population than habit apps are built for.
Research on infradian rhythms (biological cycles longer than 24 hours) shows that energy, focus, and motivation fluctuate in predictable patterns across the month. This is most documented in people with menstrual cycles, but emerging evidence suggests cyclical energy patterns exist more broadly. The habit tools we've been using assume linear days in a cyclical reality.
We didn't build Moon Manifest to sell astrology. We built it because the data from our own 1,004-user survey told us something that no existing habit app was addressing: 38% of people who fail at habits aren't lazy. Their energy fluctuates, and their system has no way to handle that. Scroll down to see what they actually said.
What we assume vs. what the data says
Hover (or tap) each card to see what 500 people actually told us.
Anatomy of failure: where 100 people leak out
Starting with 100 people who genuinely wanted to build a habit. Here's where they went.
The guilt gap
We broke down guilt by tracking method. One result stood out so sharply we checked it twice.
% of users who wish they could "stop feeling guilty", by tool
64% of people don't want more discipline.
They want a system that adapts to how they actually are: a system for their energy cycles (38%), or one that stops making them feel guilty when life gets in the way (26%).
What different goals actually want
Exact cross-tab: rows = primary goal, columns = #1 magic wish. Cell values = number of respondents. Darker = stronger connection.
| Goal ↓ / Wish → | Adapt to my energy | Stop feeling guilty | Timing guidance | Stick with it | Easier tracking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Growth | 86 | 53 | 39 | 31 | 16 |
| Relationships | 56 | 55 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
| Financial | 32 | 13 | 14 | 21 | 22 |
| Health | 14 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
The journey: where real users are
503 Moon Manifest beta users told us where they are in their consistency journey. Progress moves in cycles, not straight lines.
After 90 days, no single barrier dominates
Transformation doesn't mean sorted. It means you've stopped using the chaos as a reason to quit. All five barriers cluster between 19–22%, life is just life.
Real voices. real shifts.
87% of quiz respondents wrote something in the open-text field, 3–4× the industry norm for surveys. People needed somewhere to put this.
"
I stopped tracking streaks and started tracking moons. The guilt is gone. I didn't realise how much it was costing me until it was gone.
19% of improved users cite freedom from guilt as their #1 gift
"
I haven't done a single streak in three months and I've actually been more consistent than I've ever been. The moon doesn't care about your streak. It just keeps moving.
28% of people quit after one missed day, they never had to
"
The thing that surprised me most is how the lunar timing gave me permission to slow down during waning phases. I used to push through everything. Now I pace differently and I'm actually getting more done.
38% cite inconsistent energy as their #1 habit barrier
"
I'm back now and recommitting. The difference this time is I'm not starting over. I'm continuing.
21% of returning users came back within the same lunar cycle
"
I manifested the job. I did the new moon ritual in December and submitted the application and I got it.
17% of beta users describe themselves as transformed after 90 days
"
I had a crisis of faith around month 2 where I thought 'this is just confirmation bias'. I pulled back. But I keep coming back to it because the weeks I don't practise feel noticeably different from the ones I do.
26% of users say the most important thing they'd tell their past self is: give it more time
About this research
The data on this page comes from two cohorts surveyed in early 2026 by Moon Manifest: 500 cold-traffic respondents (people actively struggling with habit building) and 503 early beta users who had used the app for at least 90 days.
The open-text field was answered by 875 of 1,004 respondents, an 87% completion rate that is 3–4× the industry norm. Quotes on this page are used with participants' consent and are edited only for clarity and brevity.
This is proprietary product research, not a peer-reviewed academic study. We share it because the data shaped every design decision in Moon Manifest, and we think you deserve to know why.
Frequently asked questions
Frequently Asked Questions
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